Introducing ML insights: forecasts, spikes & segments

Most link tools stop at counting clicks. That's useful, but it leaves the hard questions unanswered: what is actually happening beneath the total, is the change I'm seeing real, and what happens next? A number on a card can't tell you whether Tuesday's spike is a trend or a fluke, or whether the audience clicking today is the same one that will convert tomorrow.

Answering those questions has traditionally meant exporting your data, wiring up a warehouse, and asking an analyst to build models. That's out of reach for most teams — and overkill for a link. So we built the analysis into the product. Today we're shipping ML insights: a set of models that run over your click data automatically and surface the patterns a careful analyst would look for, without any of the setup.

Trends you can actually trust

The word "trend" gets thrown around loosely. A dashboard that shouts "+24% this week" feels great until you realise the week before was down 20% and you're just watching noise bounce around. To fix that, every trend line in TRIMS now ships with a significance test.

We fit a linear regression over the period you're viewing and report the slope alongside a p-value. When the p-value is small, the movement is statistically solid and worth acting on. When it's large, we tell you plainly that the change is within normal variation. The practical effect is that you stop chasing random spikes and start responding to real signal — which is where your time is best spent.

Forecasts with an honest range

A single forecast number is a trap: it looks precise and is almost always wrong. Our forecast model instead projects the next several periods with a confidence band, so you get a realistic range rather than one optimistic point. If your campaign is trending up, you'll see how fast and how uncertain that growth is — which is exactly what you need to plan capacity, budget, or a follow-up push.

Anomaly detection on the live stream

Running in parallel with the forecast, an exponentially-weighted anomaly detector watches your realtime click stream. It maintains a moving expectation of normal behaviour and flags spikes or drops the moment they deviate — the same signal that powers spike alerts. When a link suddenly takes off because someone influential shared it, you find out while it's happening, not in next month's report.

Visitor segments, discovered automatically

Averages blend everyone together and hide the interesting structure. Using k-means over roughly a dozen behavioural signals — frequency, recency, device consistency, timing, and more — TRIMS clusters your audience into natural groups. In practice that tends to surface power users who return often, casual one-time visitors, and traffic that scores as bot-risk.

Seeing those groups separately changes decisions. You can weight your reporting toward real humans, notice when a campaign is inflating on low-quality traffic, and recognise the small segment that drives most of your conversions.

• Significant-trend detection with p-values so you know what's real
• N-period click forecasts with confidence bands
• Realtime spike and dip anomaly alerts
• Behavioural visitor segments via k-means clustering
• Peak-window detection for the best times to publish
• Dark-social estimation to explain "direct" traffic

The goal was never a smarter dashboard. It was fewer meetings that end in "let's keep an eye on it."

All of this is available on the Pro plan and runs without any configuration — no warehouse, no notebooks, no data team. Open any link's advanced analytics and the insights are already computed and waiting. If you've ever stared at a click chart wishing it would just tell you what to do, this is for you.